Angie Yeast (600298) 2019 Interim Report Comment: Periodic fluctuations in performance have long-term investment value
Investment Highlights: Event: The company announced its 2019 half-year report.
In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 37.
1.4 billion, an increase of 11 in ten years.
63%; realized profit budget 5.
7.7 billion, an increase of 1 in ten years.
04%, with a net profit of RMB 100 million.
82 ppm, degraded ten years ago.
Opinion: In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue growth bottomed out and showed a positive trend.
The scale of the company has grown weak, which is the most positive factor we have seen in the semi-annual report.
In the first half of the year, the company’s yeast series revenue was 33.
4.3 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.
32%, an increase of 9 over the same period last year.
In the first half of the year, the company’s packaging business achieved revenue2.
1.1 billion, with an annual increase of 14.
67%, an increase of 9 over the same period last year.
In the first half of the year, the company’s other main operating income3.
22 trillion, an increase of -11 in ten years.
54%, the peak income growth rate was caused by the high base in the same period last year, while the overall situation remained good.
After hard international market development, the company’s main yeast series continue to make breakthroughs in incremental markets such as Central and Eastern Europe, South America, Africa and Southeast Asia, contributing to the company’s revenue growth.
In the first half of the year, the company’s global market share reached 16%, an increase of 4 units from the 上海夜网论坛 previous 12%.
The company’s scale has weakened its sales growth, which is the most positive factor we have seen in the semi-annual report.
In the first half of the year, the company’s domestic production capacity operations were poor.
The company’s factories in Chifeng and Liuzhou achieved better growth: revenue increased by 5 each.
61% and 29.
29%, of which Angel Liuzhou’s revenue exceeded 300 million, ranking first among all branches.
Most domestic YE production capacity is concentrated in the Liuzhou plant. The growth and growth of the Liuzhou plant also reflects the rapid growth of market demand for yeast extract.
However, the company’s other domestic factories, such as Yili, Chongzuo and Dehong, have overlapping revenues to a different extent than before. Analyze the results. One is due to environmental 西安耍耍网 constraints and limited production, and the other is a domestic factory.The overhaul was advanced, further worsening the operating rate.
Due to the above-mentioned reasons, the performance of domestic core production capacity in the first half of the year was relatively poor, but the marginal improvement in the second half of the year will be more obvious through the completion of overhauls and the resumption of work at the Ili factory.
In the first half of the year, the company’s overseas production capacity operation was better than domestic production capacity.
The company’s excellent overseas production capacity performance fully reflects the benefits and bonuses of overseas plant construction, and timely offsets the substitution of domestic plant performance.
The company’s factory in Russia officially opened in 2019 and achieved revenue in the first half of the year1.
4.9 billion; the company’s Egyptian plant’s first half revenue1.
81 trillion, an increase of 9 in ten years.
At 7%, the company’s overseas production capacity operations remained at a good level.
In terms of profitability, the Egyptian and Russian factories each generated a net profit of 0 in the first half.65 and 0.
$ 5.2 billion, of which the net profit at the Egyptian plant increased by 1.
24 times, repaired to a higher level of profitability.
In addition, due to the internal cost of raw materials, energy, labor, logistics and other costs, the profitability of overseas production capacity far exceeds the domestic productivity: in the first half of the year, the net profit margins of the Egyptian and Russian factories reached 35.
91% and 34.
9%, which is 10 to 20 instances higher than the profit level in the domestic normal period.
The growth of overseas factories in terms of both revenue and profit is relatively satisfactory, which fully reflects the benefits of overseas production capacity. This is another positive aspect we saw in the report.
In addition, according to research, the Egyptian factory raised prices for product improvement. In the early stage, we had overpriced the Egyptian factory. At present, it seems that the Egyptian factory has maintained product profitability through price increases, but the revenue growth rate has decreased compared to the previous year.
5 levels. In the future, it is necessary to track and observe the sales growth of the Egyptian factory after the product price increase.
In the first half of the year, the company’s profits were maximized and added value.
04%, net profit fell by 7.
3%, profit growth far exceeded income growth, leading to a continuous plunge in the secondary market.
The main reason for the company to increase revenue but not increase profits is the significant increase in current operating costs, expenses and revenue.
In the first half of the year, the operating costs of the company’s yeast line increased by 15 per year.
63%, Earlier income was 2 higher.
31 singles, leading to a decrease in the current gross profit margin of the yeast series1.
The yeast series income accounts for 90% of the company’s revenue, and the level of yeast profit has a serious impact on the growth rate of the company’s overall profit.
The rapid increase in the operating cost of yeast has exceeded the growth rate of revenue. The main reasons include the insufficient start of domestic factories, the increase of foreign factories’ operating costs due to the appreciation of foreign currencies, and the increase in molasses prices in Russia.
In the first half of the year, the company’s selling expenses and management expenses increased significantly.
First, sales expenses increased by 32 in ten years.
47%, reaching 2.
04 million, the sales expense ratio increases by 0 every year.
97 units; additional internal management expenses including R & D expenses23.
25%, reaching 2.
810,000 yuan, including research and development costs1.
With USD 5.4 billion, the company has continued to invest in new product development.
Due to the steady growth and share of the domestic market, the company’s sales expenses were mainly directed to the pioneers of overseas markets, and the expansion of overseas markets is indeed relatively large: the company’s sales staff wages increased in the first half of the year.
5%, basically keeping pace with sales growth; advertising costs increase by 1 every year.
64 times, reaching 0.
8.7 billion, compared with only 0 in the same period last year.
33 ppm, so aggressively invested in advertising, for the first time in company history.
Similar additives can also be ground from the balance sheet: the size of the company’s consolidated receivables continues to increase, reflecting the increase in the number of distributors in the international market, as well as the credit lines and potential costs paid by the company for overseas exhibition.
Second, the company’s plasma interest rate in the first half of the year17.
18%, an increase of 7 over the same period last year.
3 units: Considering that the Russian factory has started to make a profit this year, and the new YE capacity of the Egyptian factory has also made a profit, and the overseas tax rate is higher than domestic, so the overall tax increase of the company is a long-term event and should be included in the profit forecast.
Finally, we expect the company’s financial costs to increase in the future.
Considering the company’s current short-term debt 21.
12 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.
11 trillion, 15 long-term debt.18 ‰, an increase of 9 per year.
100 million US dollars, the company’s average long-term and short-term interest-bearing debt will increase, will lead to an increase in future financial costs.
The company’s short-term growth point is the repair of domestic production capacity: Regarding the second half of the year, we judge that the performance of domestic factories will be better than the first half.
The company’s mid- and long-term growth points include the continued expansion of foreign production capacity and the decline in sales expense ratio.
The repair of domestic production capacity mainly depends on the Yili factory.
The Ili factory began to suffer environmental complaints from local residents last year, initially limiting production and planning for factory relocation.
According to the survey, through the improvement of environmental protection technology, the current capacity utilization rate of the factory has reached 60% to 70%.
Yili factory ‘s production capacity was partially restored to cover the completion of major plant repairs. The performance of domestic production capacity in the second half of the year should be better than that in the first half.
It is believed that the implementation of Yili’s relocation will take 1 to 2 years, that is, by the end of 2020, the new plant is expected to be able to land and effectively promote the utilization of Yili’s production capacity.
In terms of foreign production capacity, Russia’s second-phase project is still under review, and the South American plant is still being selected each year. The addition of new production capacity will take time and will contribute to the company’s medium- and long-term growth.
The sales expense ratio may still continue to rise, but after reaching a critical point, through the expansion of sales scale, the expense ratio will decline, which is also a mid-to-long term focus.
The new chairman of the investment strategy company has taken office, and the new chairman has long been a senior executive of state-owned enterprises in the chemical industry.
The new chairman said: The company’s established development strategy will not change, and it will firmly implement the international and professional development goals, and the company’s “double 10 billion” goals will not change.
We believe that under the guidance of the “double 10 billion” target, the company’s revenue growth in 2019, 2020 and 2021 must be maintained at a level of 15%.
The company is currently in a golden period of expansion and growth. The company’s expenditure on taxes and fees will increase significantly in the next few years, and its revenue must make concessions to scale.
The company’s performance growth is the fastest this year. In addition to the fundamentals, there are other special reasons. It is expected that the company’s performance growth in 2020 and 2021 will return to normal levels.
We fine-tuned our profit forecast, and we expect the company’s earnings in 2019, 2020, and 2021 to be 1.
03 yuan, 1.
21 yuan, 1.
47 yuan, increased by -0 each year.
48% and 21.
49%, with reference to the closing price of 27 on August 12.
2 yuan, corresponding to a market surplus of 26.
41 times, 22.
48 times and 18.
We maintain a “Buy” rating on the company at 5 times, and give a P / E ratio of 26 times in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 31.
46 yuan, up 15.
Risk reminder: Transforming the continuous expansion of overseas production capacity, the company ‘s exchange rate impact is becoming more and more complex, and the exchange risk is increasing; the impact of environmental protection and production restriction will be long-term, relocation will also affect the start of construction, and domestic capacity utilization may be frequentOn the low side.